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October cooled off. Load-to-truck ratios eased, but linehaul rates held near their highs even as produce volumes fell.
The country is split. In the North, carriers are earning more on spot than on contract, so expect more turned-down tenders. In the South, the opposite is true. Overall, industry data puts reefer tender rejections near 1 in 5.
There’s a strong chance spot moves above contract nationwide heading into the holidays.
National reefer spot vs. contract
Nationally, spot and contract have tracked within a few cents of each other since August. Before fuel, contract edged ahead in November at $2.77 a mile against $2.76 for spot. The regional view shows how much that average hides.
Carriers earn more on spot in the North and less in the South
When spot pays more than contract, carriers start turning down contract loads. When it pays less, contract rates are above the market.
Rates by origin region Oct. 11 – Nov. 9, 2026
| Origin region | Contract | Spot | Spot vs. contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Great Lakes | $3.13 | $3.54 | +41¢ |
| Upper Midwest | $3.17 | $3.58 | +41¢ |
| Pacific Northwest | $2.75 | $3.14 | +39¢ |
| Ohio River | $3.07 | $3.36 | +29¢ |
| Upper Atlantic | $2.58 | $2.79 | +21¢ |
| Lower Midwest | $3.10 | $3.26 | +16¢ |
| Upper Mountain | $2.89 | $3.02 | +13¢ |
| Lower Atlantic | $2.58 | $2.60 | +2¢ |
| New England | $2.28 | $2.28 | +0¢ |
| Lower Mountain | $2.55 | $2.47 | −8¢ |
| California | $3.08 | $2.92 | −16¢ |
| Southeast | $2.75 | $2.43 | −32¢ |
| South Central | $2.57 | $2.20 | −37¢ |
| Florida–South Georgia | $1.71 | $1.34 | −37¢ |
| Carolinas | $2.63 | $2.25 | −38¢ |
Reefer loads per truck
Reefer loads per truck averaged 15.8 in October, down from 19.2 in September but still well above 11.3 a year ago and 5.8 in 2024. Freight eased, but there are still far fewer trucks for each load than in either of the last two years.
U.S. diesel, weekly average ($/gal)
Diesel climbed through most of October, peaking at $6.352 the week of Oct. 26, and U.S. distillate stocks fell to 99.3 million barrels at the end of the month, the lowest since 2003. Prices have now come down two weeks in a row, with every region falling last week. The national average settled at $6.127, down 16.5¢ on the week and about 5¢ below a month ago, but still up roughly 60% year over year. California sits at $7.90 and the Midwest at $6.20. With refineries maxed out, winter heating oil demand coming and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, we expect prices to stay high for months.
Produce trucks hauled 5.2 billion pounds in October, down 1% from September and 3% below last year, as the primary produce seasons wind down.
Food in cold storage reached 9.1 billion pounds on Sept. 30, the highest point of the year and 3% above last year. Stocks are building heading into the holidays, and that product moves by reefer as it ships out.
Desert Southwest: Around Nov. 17, lettuce and vegetable shipping moves from Salinas to Yuma, which should free up trucks on the Central Coast. Expect rates out of the desert Southwest to climb as the winter vegetable season ramps up.
Washington: Still a challenging market, with trucks running short to every market USDA tracks. Expect elevated rates and limited capacity, with some easing likely after apple season.
Mexico crossings: Trucks are easiest to find through South Texas, where USDA rates availability at a slight surplus. Nogales is adequate for now, but we expect challenges there in the coming months as the winter vegetable season builds.
Holidays: Plan for turbulence starting the week before Thanksgiving (week of Nov. 16), the same week as the Salinas-to-Yuma move.